- Understanding Cost Estimates
- Historically, high-speed transit system
cost-estimates have been published which range
from relatively inexpensive $10 million per mile
or less systems to systems costing billions of
dollars. Why the wide range in purported costs if
the same basic technology is being utilized?
- The answer is that in order to understand the
variation in cost estimates, one must be familiar
with all of the cost categories used when
estimating the costs of such projects.
- Some key categories are as follows:
- - Civil Works (guideway
structure and materials, construction &
installation, rails, etc.)
- - Mechanical/Electrical
(signals, controls, communications,
electrification systems, etc.)
- - Facilities (line stations,
parking structures, maintenance facilities,
traffic control centers, etc.)
- - Special Structures
(tunnels, bridges, overpass reconstruction,
urban structures, etc.)
- - Land Acquisition (Public
and private)
- - Environmental Mitigation Allowance
(restoration, wildlife protection, sound
walls, etc.)
- - Engineering Design
- - Project Management/Construction
Management
- - Bonding and Insurance
- - Vehicles
- - Contingencies (both design
and construction)
- Estimate Examples
- For any given 10-mile project, one cost estimate
may be all-inclusive, providing costs for all of
these and other pertinent categories. Another
cost estimate may include only the basic system
itself (e.g. – rail & vehicles) while
excluding facilities, land acquisition,
environmental mitigation, etc. Even though both
of these proposals are listed at $10 million per
mile, it is hardly equitable to assume that the
two systems are financial equals.
- Comparing a Rocky Mountain corridor project to a
project in the Midwest is also deceptive. The
Rocky Mountain project may include boring miles
of tunnels and traversing rough terrain with
steep grades, while the Midwest project may run
straight over relatively flat land. T cost
consequences are significant.
- In addition, one must have the expertise to
predict extraordinary expenses. A light-weight,
low-cost maglev, which has the capability to bank
sharply, will be much more capable of staying
within the right-of-way than one that cannot
bank. Therefore, land acquisition requirements
and overall length of the track will vary
greatly, adding substantially to the cost of a
conventional transit system project.
- Current Project Estimates
- This innovative system can be built for a
fraction of the cost of traditional maglev
projects.
- Following are examples of actual estimated costs
for current traditional maglev projects:
| Project |
Total Cost |
Length (Miles) |
Cost/Mile |
Source |
| Pittsburgh Civic Arena |
$147 Million |
0.41 |
$359 Million |
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (7 MAR
99) |
| Pittsburgh Oakland Extension |
$550 Million |
10 |
$55 Million |
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (7 MAR 99) |
| Tokyo-Osaka |
$20.8-$72 Billion |
478 |
$43.5-$150 Million |
Charles Arthur Independent (1
JUN 98) |
| Hamburg-Berlin |
$5.9 Billion |
181 |
$33 Million |
Scientific American Issue
1097/Time Magazine (9 NOV 98) |
-
- Leveling the Playing Field
- There is no simple way to estimate the costs of a
high-speed transit project. In order to
accurately compare two cost estimates, one must
be familiar with all of the cost categories
included or omitted in any given project profile
so as to build a proper cost estimate on either a
cost per mile or total system cost basis.
Benefits of Maglift
- Will generate significant revenue from fares.
- Adds a capacity of six to eight lanes of highway.
- Is generally less expensive than highway
expansion.
- Can be built and operated for much less than
traditional maglev systems.
- Will generate significant "consumer
surplus," the extra money that passengers
would be willing to pay beyond the fare for the
service.
- 60-70% of the cost is concrete, which can be
manufactured locally.
- Will reduce highway congestion in the corridor.
- Will reduce exhaust emissions.
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