Cost
Estimating
(CE-101)
You have to be
careful when comparing cost estimates for transportation systems. Published cost-estimates for high-speed transit
systems range from a relatively inexpensive $10 million per mile to systems costing $100
million per mile, or more. Why the wide range
in purported costs--sometimes even when the same technology is being utilized?
b, following are
examples of actual estimated costs for current high-speed projects:
Project
|
Total Cost
|
Length (Miles)
|
Cost/Mile
|
Source
|
Pittsburgh Civic
Arena |
$147 Million
|
0.41
|
$b359 Million
|
Pittsburgh
Post-Gazette (7 MAR 99) |
Pittsburgh
Oakland Extension |
$550 Million
|
10
|
$55 Million
|
Pittsburgh
Post-Gazette (7 MAR 99) |
Tokyo-Osaka
|
$20.8-$72
Billion |
478
|
$43.5-$150
Million |
Charles Arthur
Independent (1 JUN 98) |
Hamburg-Berlin
|
$5.9 Billion
|
181
|
$33 Million
|
Scientific
American Issue 1097/Time Magazine (9 NOV 98)
|
Cost Factors (Leveling the Playing Field)
There is no simple way to estimate the costs of a high-speed transit
project. In order to accurately compare two cost estimates, one must be familiar with all
of the cost categories included or omitted in any given project profile so as to build a
proper cost estimate on either a cost per mile or total system cost basis.
Key cost categories are:
·
Infrastructure: civil works, guideway structure and materials, construction
and installation, rails
·
Mechanical and Electrical: switches, electrification
·
Subsystems: safety, communications, traffic control, etc.
·
Facilities: line stations, parking structures, maintenance facilities,
traffic control centers
·
Special Structures: tunnels, bridges, overpass reconstruction, urban
structures
·
Land Acquisition: public and private
·
Environmental Mitigation: restoration, wildlife protection, sound walls
·
Engineering Design
·
Project and Construction Management
·
Bonding and Insurance
·
Vehicles
·
Contingencies: design and construction
b
Local Conditions
The cost of a system in one corridor may also be very different to
the cost of the same system in another corridor. Local
conditions can have a major impact on total system cost. For example, comparing a Rocky
Mountain corridor project to one in the Midwest is misleading as the Rocky Mountain
project may include boring miles of tunnels and traversing rough terrain with steep
grades, while the Midwest project may run straight over relatively flat land. Comparing a system within a major city with one
built across open countryside is misleading. The
city project may include expensive land acquisition, rebuilding special structures such as
bridges, and relocating utilities, while the open country system may include none of these
(but may include for example expensive environmental mitigation).
The Local Economy
A system can be constructed in some countries inexpensively while the
same system in another country might be quite expensive.
Since 60% of the cost of the system may be the cost of manufacturing the guideway,
stations, and supporting structures (control centers and maintenance yards), the most
critical component may be the cost of locally manufactured pre-cast concrete components. If the system is to be located in a country with
large supplies of sand and gravel, numerous pre-cast plants, and cheap labor, then the
system will cost much less than one in an area which does not have these resources.
Different Technologies
The MagliftTM monorail system will
usually be the least expensive alternative with return the greatest increase in capacity. This system is lighter weight than competing
systems, has greater construction and operating tolerances
than competing systems, has lower total system costs than competing systems, is
more environmentally compatible than competing systems, all with equal or greater
ridership capacity.
Highway Expansion
A two-way monorail system can provide the capacity equivalent of
eight highway lanes, four running in each direction.
Adding eight lanes to a highway will usually cost much more because where there is
such a need for additional capacity, the surrounding land is built-up and the cost of
acquiring land, relocating utilities, disrupting traffic during construction, etc. is
prohibitive.
Conventional Rail
A conventional rail system will typically cost more than the monorail
system because it needs a dedicated right-of-way, expensive (and often dangerous) grade
crossings, and significant earth works (even tunnels) to provide a gentle grade (2% or so)
along the route.
Maglev Systems
Maglev systems are expensive, so much so, they are not economic. The
rationale for maglev is that it overcomes rolling friction and the vehicles float
friction-free down a guideway. At high speeds (for which maglev is intended), the rolling
friction accounts for only 20% of the total drag (aerodynamic drag dominates) - rolling
drag it a small factor. Unfortunately, maglev introduces magnetic drag which is nearly as
great as the rolling drag which it eliminated. Thus the overall reduction that can be
attributed to magnetic levitation is just 5%. And for this minor gain, there is a
tremendous increase in complexity, cost and technical risk. Maglev technology is a
complex, expensive, and an inefficient solution to a small problem.
To compare MagliftTM technology with other technologies try this
link.
Benefits of MagliftTM technology
·
Can generate sufficient revenue from fares to cover all operating costs and
service construction debt.
·
Can be built and operated for much less than traditional maglev systems.
·
Can add the equivalent capacity of six to eight lanes of highway.
·
Is generally less expensive than highway expansion.
·
60-70% of the cost is concrete, which can be manufactured locally.
·
Will reduce highway congestion in concurrent corridors.
·
Will reduce levels of exhaust emissions.
Refer to the technical paper,
Maglift Monorail, for a
more detailed discussion of comparative operating costs.
We invite you to e-mail Meneren principal, Bill Tolbert, if you would like to
discuss a cost estimate for a monorail system in your corridor.
Click here to return to the main monorail
page, and click here to return to the home page.
This page was updated December 15th, 2004.
This web site address: http://www.meneren.com
Send inquiries or support issues to: mono@meneren.com
Please refer to the Legal
Disclosure for important legal information.
Copyright © 1999, 2000, 2001 by Meneren Corporation.
|